And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–18 on winners spread MAE 8.4 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle +0.2 150.0 51% 82–68 ✗
Wofford @ Elon +6.8 134.6 73% 56–79 ✓
Pacific @ Illinois State +8.4 144.8 78% 61–72 ✓
Fresno State @ Santa Clara +15.2 151.3 88% 66–81 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.7 152.5 35% 78–84 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Wichita State +7.1 144.7 72% 87–96 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Utah +7.0 145.0 58% 72–63 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +7.0 136.2 77% 89–96 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Liberty +37.5 127.0 91% 52–89 ✓
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State +10.8 150.4 84% 53–74 ✓
North Florida @ Georgia Southern +0.0 160.1 59% 91–93 ✓
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +28.7 138.9 91% 78–94 ✓
Lindenwood @ Ole Miss +26.3 148.8 91% 53–86 ✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State +6.5 155.3 73% 80–77 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Idaho State +10.2 146.1 83% 55–71 ✓
Weber State @ North Dakota +1.9 143.6 52% 75–80 ✓
Northern Colorado @ North Dakota State +4.7 153.9 71% 70–82 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +2.2 160.1 52% 102–91 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +8.5 134.4 81% 68–75 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -0.2 138.4 58% 60–71 ✗
Colorado State @ Colorado +6.9 148.8 75% 55–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah State +20.8 147.4 89% 62–92 ✓
New Mexico State @ New Mexico +17.0 150.1 87% 89–83 ✗
Nevada @ Loyola Marymount -4.9 136.1 35% 64–68 ✗
Kansas City @ Montana State +14.7 136.4 87% 62–74 ✓
Kentucky @ Gonzaga +4.5 163.3 54% 90–89 ✗
San Diego @ San Diego State +24.5 139.8 90% 57–74 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +11.6 138.9 86% 60–81 ✓
Richmond @ Auburn +27.5 147.1 90% 54–98 ✓
Maryland @ Purdue -1.5 141.8 53% 78–83 ✗
Maine @ Fordham +1.6 140.8 59% 72–87 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Seton Hall -1.5 132.6 38% 85–76 ✓
Vanderbilt @ TCU -2.4 145.0 40% 83–74 ✓
Kansas @ Missouri +4.6 151.7 59% 67–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona -3.9 132.5 38% 63–72 ✗
Wagner @ Maryland Eastern Shore -3.4 122.1 23% 63–61 ✓
Cornell @ Army +2.8 162.0 62% 103–84 ✗
Harvard @ New Hampshire -4.4 132.7 28% 72–62 ✓
Tarleton State @ UCF +21.6 140.3 91% 51–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Niagara +1.3 129.4 53% 80–62 ✗
Siena @ Canisius -8.1 136.1 22% 66–53 ✓
Howard @ Cincinnati +27.2 138.8 91% 67–84 ✓
Colgate @ Northeastern +12.8 133.3 87% 75–78 ✓
Bucknell @ Radford +8.8 139.2 77% 70–74 ✓
Ball State @ SIU Edwardsville +7.5 137.4 73% 69–82 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +10.7 145.8 79% 77–82 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +0.4 144.9 49% 73–83 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan +1.7 140.4 60% 82–75 ✗
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's +6.8 138.2 77% 94–101 ✓
Austin Peay @ Samford +11.1 145.9 80% 47–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Louis +15.2 148.2 89% 62–85 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ LSU +12.1 139.6 85% 71–80 ✓
Mercer @ Stetson -3.0 151.9 36% 89–83 ✓
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech +1.4 140.8 61% 72–67 ✗
Rice @ Texas State +5.5 133.0 70% 66–75 ✓
Arkansas State @ Memphis +11.8 149.0 80% 85–72 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +12.5 145.9 85% 53–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ South Alabama +3.8 138.3 67% 74–76 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi State +32.5 167.7 91% 84–91 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana -8.7 150.1 20% 69–58 ✓
UConn @ Texas +6.3 143.5 69% 76–65 ✗
Dartmouth @ UIC +7.6 152.3 76% 68–69 ✓
Jackson State @ Iowa State +34.4 149.4 91% 58–100 ✓
Duke @ Louisville -5.0 137.5 31% 76–65 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +3.6 139.3 53% 73–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.