Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -100000 USD +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -27.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -24.5 (-7.5) | 139.8 (-8.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -23.7 (-6.7) | 138.3 (-7.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -22.3 (-5.3) | 137.7 (-6.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -22.7 (-5.7) | 139.9 (-8.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 6-27 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-13 |
| Away | 6-4 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#33) | -9.9 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#41) | -2.16 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#38) | -2.11 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.683 (#12) | 0.366 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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