We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
CEFCU Arena · December 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -7.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money ILST -360 / PAC +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual ILST +11 133 Won
Massey ILST -9.5 (+1.5)
Massey Totals 145.3 (-12.3)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 85%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -8.4 (+2.6) 144.8 (-11.8) 78%
Baseline ML ILST -7.3 (+3.7) 144.7 (-11.7) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -7.1 (+3.9) 143.2 (-10.2) 77%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -8.7 (+2.3) 142.4 (-9.4) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST PAC
Overall 22-14 9-24
Conference 10-10 4-14
Home 12-4 5-10
Away 5-7 2-13
Neutral 5-3 1-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak W3 L5
Avg Pts For 74.9 68.0
Avg Pts Against 72.4 77.2
Massey -0.4 (#165) -5.3 (#266)
Bradley-Terry -0.58 (#226) -0.97 (#256)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.35 (#186) -1.20 (#244)
RPI 0.466 (#233) 0.450 (#262)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST PAC
FG% 47.7% 41.6%
3PT% 38.0% 27.0%
REB / G 33.4 37.8
OREB / G 6.7 11.5
AST / TO 1.17 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.7% 46.6%
TOV% 17.0% 19.2%
ORB% 22.0% 31.2%
FT Rate 26.4% 24.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.2% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 14.3%
DRB% 75.1% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 28.0%

Game Analysis

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