Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -360 PAC +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -9.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -8.4 (+2.6) | 144.8 (-11.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -7.3 (+3.7) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -7.1 (+3.9) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -8.7 (+2.3) | 142.4 (-9.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#165) | -5.3 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#226) | -0.97 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#186) | -1.20 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#233) | 0.450 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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