Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TCU +120 VAN -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +9 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -3.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -2.4 (-6.6) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -2.1 (-6.9) | 144.4 (+12.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -3.0 (-6.0) | 142.8 (+14.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -0.8 (-8.2) | 142.9 (+14.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#90) | 9.0 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#116) | 2.60 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#124) | 3.58 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#124) | 0.596 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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