Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -200 ORU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -14.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -10.2 (+5.8) | 146.1 (-20.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -10.6 (+5.4) | 148.0 (-22.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -10.7 (+5.3) | 146.3 (-20.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -10.3 (+5.7) | 141.4 (-15.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 82.0 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#143) | -8.8 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#277) | -1.40 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#227) | -1.70 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#229) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 59.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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