Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
FedExForum · December 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MEM -11.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money MEM -1200 / ARST +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total MEM win
Actual ARST +13 157 Lost
Massey MEM -18.5 (-31.5)
Massey Totals 150.4 (+6.6)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML MEM -11.8 (-24.8) 149.0 (+8.0) 80%
Baseline ML MEM -14.5 (-27.5) 145.8 (+11.2) 84%
Baseline Tuned ML MEM -14.6 (-27.6) 145.4 (+11.6) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML MEM -13.1 (-26.1) 147.8 (+9.2) 82%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 3, 2020 MEM 8354 ARST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MEM ARST
Overall 29-6 25-11
Conference 16-2 13-5
Home 13-2 14-2
Away 11-2 8-6
Neutral 5-2 3-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.9 78.7
Avg Pts Against 73.4 70.5
Massey 13.9 (#29) -0.1 (#161)
Bradley-Terry 3.62 (#9) 0.28 (#150)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.90 (#14) 0.28 (#151)
RPI 0.739 (#3) 0.538 (#113)
Shooting & Four Factors MEM ARST
FG% 48.2% 39.3%
3PT% 45.5% 28.1%
REB / G 34.6 40.9
OREB / G 10.2 13.1
AST / TO 0.99 0.81
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.6% 45.8%
TOV% 18.4% 17.1%
ORB% 31.8% 31.1%
FT Rate 35.0% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.2% 44.8%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 18.4%
DRB% 67.9% 68.9%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 28.8%

Game Analysis

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