Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -38.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +7 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -39.0 (-32.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -32.5 (-25.5) | 167.7 (+7.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -32.6 (-25.6) | 166.9 (+8.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -24.5 (-17.5) | 169.0 (+6.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -28.3 (-21.3) | 165.5 (+9.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 3-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#9) | -15.7 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#23) | -3.07 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.41 (#20) | -4.19 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#20) | 0.352 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 55.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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