Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +170 WAG -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -5.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -4.9 (+2.9) | 124.0 (+0.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -3.5 (+1.5) | 125.6 (-1.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -4.2 (+2.2) | 125.5 (-1.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -3.4 (+1.4) | 122.1 (+1.9) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | WAG 78 – 64 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 6-10 |
| Home | 5-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-17 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -18.9 (#361) | -9.3 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.29 (#357) | -0.41 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.94 (#347) | -1.11 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#326) | 0.489 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 33.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 38.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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