Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -218 UMES +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -9.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -8.3 (+5.7) | 137.3 (+4.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -6.3 (+7.7) | 138.4 (+3.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -7.5 (+6.5) | 139.3 (+2.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -6.8 (+7.2) | 138.6 (+3.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | WAG 63 – 61 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 6-12 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#266) | -11.3 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#269) | -2.24 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#258) | -3.65 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#241) | 0.448 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.6% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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