Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -450 KC +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -18.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -14.7 (-2.7) | 136.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -14.7 (-2.7) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -14.1 (-2.1) | 139.4 (-3.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -12.1 (-0.1) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#99) | -9.4 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#195) | -3.28 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#166) | -4.30 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#162) | 0.347 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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