Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Stetson Hatters
83 89 OT
FINAL SoCon/ASUN Challenge
Mercer Bears
Insight Credit Union Arena at Edmunds Center · December 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MER -3.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money STET +145 / MER -175
Model Predictions
Spread Total STET win
Actual MER +6 172 Lost
Massey MER -2.4 (-3.6)
Massey Totals 162.9 (+9.1)
Bradley-Terry 6%
Weighted B-T 2%
Baseline Plus ML MER -3.0 (-3.0) 151.9 (+20.1) 36%
Baseline ML MER -2.9 (-3.1) 154.5 (+17.5) 37%
Baseline Tuned ML MER -2.4 (-3.6) 152.5 (+19.5) 36%
Efficiency Plus ML MER -1.5 (-4.5) 151.0 (+21.0) 42%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STET MER
Overall 8-24 14-19
Conference 6-12 6-12
Home 5-9 7-6
Away 3-11 5-11
Neutral 0-4 2-2
Last 5 0-5 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 69.9 73.7
Avg Pts Against 81.9 77.0
Massey -11.4 (#342) -4.4 (#242)
Bradley-Terry -3.88 (#364) -0.39 (#205)
W. Bradley-Terry -5.91 (#364) -0.96 (#233)
RPI 0.355 (#351) 0.472 (#223)
Shooting & Four Factors STET MER
FG% 44.8% 46.3%
3PT% 34.5% 32.9%
REB / G 33.3 33.0
OREB / G 9.0 10.3
AST / TO 0.84 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.3% 53.5%
TOV% 21.3% 20.4%
ORB% 26.9% 29.5%
FT Rate 20.4% 17.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 54.0%
Opp TOV% 13.2% 17.9%
DRB% 64.9% 66.7%
Opp FT Rate 18.9% 27.7%

Game Analysis

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