Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UND +110 WEB -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UND -0.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -1.9 (+3.1) | 143.6 (+11.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -1.5 (+3.5) | 144.0 (+11.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -1.8 (+3.2) | 143.1 (+11.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -0.8 (+4.2) | 142.6 (+12.4) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#302) | -3.5 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#270) | -1.00 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#277) | -1.48 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#329) | 0.475 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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