Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +44 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -32.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -27.5 (+16.5) | 147.1 (+4.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -26.2 (+17.8) | 149.8 (+2.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -23.4 (+20.6) | 147.9 (+4.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -21.0 (+23.0) | 144.9 (+7.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 23.7 (#4) | -4.7 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#5) | -1.21 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.78 (#6) | -1.93 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.742 (#1) | 0.425 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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