You have to let that raga drop. "Rock the Casbah" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–19 on winners spread MAE 9.1 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tulane @ Temple +4.6 145.1 66% 60–89 ✓
Tulsa @ East Carolina -14.0 157.0 10% 93–66 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International +0.7 158.5 52% 73–67 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty +10.6 135.5 83% 76–71 ✗
Sam Houston @ Delaware -8.7 149.7 21% 80–83 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +9.8 158.1 81% 77–90 ✓
American University @ Boston University +2.4 148.3 59% 73–75 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso +2.3 145.6 58% 62–63 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +6.4 144.6 72% 66–69 ✓
Bucknell @ Navy +17.2 135.8 94% 69–74 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +12.4 149.3 87% 65–76 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +8.1 125.6 77% 63–66 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M -2.0 145.1 43% 77–81 ✗
Howard @ Norfolk State -5.2 145.3 32% 84–76 ✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +8.3 121.8 77% 57–56 ✗
Michigan @ Iowa -9.1 150.1 20% 71–68 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan State +22.4 141.1 98% 87–91 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +1.6 142.2 56% 65–63 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +3.9 161.3 64% 70–59 ✗
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State +0.4 138.6 52% 65–60 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Missouri State -1.8 150.5 44% 74–87 ✗
Coppin State @ Morgan State +8.5 156.3 78% 66–70 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -11.7 155.1 14% 92–88 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +11.3 149.4 85% 77–85 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield +6.1 157.8 71% 60–71 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State +7.6 172.9 76% 80–77 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State -1.0 153.9 46% 83–48 ✓
Kennesaw State @ UTEP -3.5 150.3 37% 71–78 ✗
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State +4.9 142.1 67% 75–77 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +2.8 151.1 60% 68–77 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis -5.4 160.5 31% 96–89 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M +1.0 150.8 54% 88–85 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield -8.2 165.2 23% 86–84 ✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +6.2 153.6 71% 67–80 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +15.5 127.3 92% 59–68 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +2.7 152.1 60% 66–68 ✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State -2.2 152.1 42% 76–70 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +10.8 154.8 84% 85–107 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton -2.0 156.7 43% 71–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +9.2 133.3 80% 48–87 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +5.5 151.2 69% 66–62 ✗
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i +14.7 145.4 91% 74–93 ✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +7.2 161.1 74% 73–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +28.7 163.6 100% 59–81 ✓
Drake @ Belmont +11.5 161.1 85% 100–79 ✗
Northeastern @ North Carolina A&T +0.6 161.1 52% 88–72 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop +6.4 167.9 72% 81–86 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +5.1 155.9 68% 77–53 ✗
UIC @ Murray State +0.3 158.2 51% 92–79 ✗
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +6.9 144.8 74% 88–85 ✗
Stetson @ Austin Peay +11.2 152.3 84% 60–69 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +25.2 156.4 99% 55–94 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +1.6 144.4 56% 82–85 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State -1.7 143.0 44% 81–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +6.2 147.0 71% 48–70 ✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan -2.9 138.8 40% 77–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.