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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–16 on winners spread MAE 10.9 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Texas @ Arkansas +7.5 171.1 75% 85–105 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Washington +10.6 162.8 83% 82–91 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island +2.6 148.2 59% 52–64 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +5.4 135.7 69% 70–67 ✗
UAB @ Charlotte -0.8 149.8 47% 80–74 ✓
Marquette @ Providence +7.2 173.6 74% 78–56 ✗
Miami @ SMU +2.2 163.2 58% 77–69 ✗
California @ Georgia Tech -5.5 152.1 31% 76–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +6.0 125.2 71% 77–71 ✗
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +8.1 138.0 77% 81–71 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst +7.2 133.5 74% 61–70 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +3.9 145.5 64% 70–60 ✗
Chicago State @ Long Island University +14.2 143.2 90% 75–79 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +4.3 166.9 65% 85–84 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +3.8 156.5 63% 63–84 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +5.7 146.1 70% 53–68 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +14.7 164.4 91% 61–90 ✓
Ohio State @ Penn State -8.4 158.6 22% 94–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate +12.7 150.4 88% 65–64 ✗
North Florida @ West Georgia +3.4 166.7 62% 85–93 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis +29.6 156.5 100% 65–79 ✓
Maryland @ Wisconsin +16.2 157.7 93% 45–78 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +8.6 136.8 78% 58–62 ✓
Villanova @ DePaul -4.9 136.0 33% 76–57 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +7.4 147.1 75% 62–84 ✓
Purdue @ Northwestern -9.6 147.5 19% 70–66 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern -1.4 164.2 45% 84–88 ✗
Baylor @ Houston +13.7 145.9 89% 64–77 ✓
Florida State @ Pittsburgh +0.0 148.6 50% 75–74 ✗
Stanford @ Notre Dame +0.9 148.2 53% 86–78 ✗
Little Rock @ Lindenwood +3.6 150.9 63% 62–72 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +8.0 148.8 77% 82–74 ✗
USC @ Washington +5.6 154.2 70% 72–91 ✓
Drake @ Southern Illinois +5.8 147.8 70% 67–63 ✗
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +7.0 147.0 74% 80–64 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Iona +4.0 158.0 64% 91–80 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Miss -1.1 147.4 46% 80–86 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.