If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–16 on winners spread MAE 9.5 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Creighton @ UConn +15.5 143.5 92% 91–84 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +2.4 182.9 59% 115–117 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State -5.9 132.7 30% 81–60 ✓
Bradley @ Valparaiso -0.2 144.8 49% 72–79 ✗
American University @ Bucknell -3.7 142.9 37% 75–57 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +4.6 148.3 66% 71–65 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Fordham +11.6 134.2 85% 59–62 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne +11.4 148.7 85% 61–62 ✓
Dayton @ George Mason +2.9 138.8 60% 82–67 ✗
Richmond @ Davidson +4.6 144.5 66% 63–65 ✓
Wichita State @ East Carolina -10.4 144.4 17% 92–89 ✓
UAB @ Temple -0.1 150.0 50% 76–71 ✓
Clemson @ Wake Forest -2.8 143.0 40% 77–85 ✗
Army @ Loyola Maryland +5.8 154.6 70% 87–77 ✗
Lehigh @ Navy +11.7 142.9 86% 49–72 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +7.4 154.5 75% 71–87 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina +6.7 163.3 73% 77–91 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina +1.8 146.4 57% 67–65 ✗
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M +10.0 158.4 82% 77–80 ✓
Oklahoma @ Tennessee +11.0 153.3 84% 66–89 ✓
West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky +6.7 159.0 73% 80–81 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +7.3 143.0 75% 84–86 ✓
Queens University @ North Alabama -8.0 161.3 23% 85–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Delaware -3.6 140.2 37% 88–87 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake -1.5 150.9 44% 66–61 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -15.2 164.1 8% 77–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -3.6 162.8 37% 75–72 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston +6.9 155.2 74% 70–78 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +0.8 125.6 53% 71–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State -1.7 144.6 44% 72–85 ✗
UIC @ Evansville -8.4 139.5 22% 84–46 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -15.9 157.1 7% 60–52 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa +14.2 155.9 90% 74–79 ✓
Maryland @ Northwestern +10.4 146.2 83% 74–78 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +9.3 126.8 80% 69–57 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha +9.4 150.7 80% 71–80 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State -1.3 150.2 45% 74–66 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Missouri State +1.2 158.6 55% 91–87 ✗
Utah @ West Virginia +9.1 138.8 80% 61–56 ✗
BYU @ Arizona +10.5 166.5 83% 68–75 ✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma State -8.8 157.5 21% 81–69 ✓
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -15.0 151.5 9% 94–68 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette -10.7 157.2 17% 76–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Missouri -8.0 159.2 23% 80–81 ✗
Murray State @ Illinois State +5.1 158.2 68% 61–78 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Seattle U -9.6 132.6 19% 72–70 ✓
Auburn @ Mississippi State -5.8 161.0 30% 85–91 ✗
Pacific @ Washington State +1.2 145.7 54% 70–87 ✓
Illinois @ USC -10.8 159.1 16% 101–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +7.6 147.5 76% 95–87 ✗
Boise State @ Utah State +10.1 157.3 82% 56–75 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -16.6 152.2 7% 80–59 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV -0.4 153.8 48% 91–86 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC +1.4 145.2 55% 62–75 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +4.2 150.5 65% 56–78 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +6.0 137.5 71% 79–67 ✗
Florida International @ Liberty +10.5 158.2 83% 89–90 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop +13.2 157.0 88% 64–68 ✓
Marshall @ App State +1.6 139.5 56% 94–93 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.