They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–13 on winners spread MAE 11.2 30 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina @ Florida +21.5 151.2 97% 62–76 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State +3.0 160.7 61% 58–82 ✓
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island -12.3 152.1 13% 76–81 ✗
Louisville @ SMU -3.9 168.3 36% 85–95 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts -5.6 171.6 31% 86–77 ✓
TCU @ UCF +1.2 156.7 54% 71–82 ✓
Kent State @ Bowling Green +5.4 157.1 69% 78–71 ✗
Ball State @ Ohio +10.0 140.3 82% 57–69 ✓
Akron @ Western Michigan -13.7 166.9 11% 90–73 ✓
George Washington @ VCU +5.8 165.0 70% 75–89 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Miami +8.2 156.1 77% 66–67 ✓
UCLA @ Michigan State +9.3 140.4 80% 59–82 ✓
Wisconsin @ Ohio State +2.0 164.5 57% 69–86 ✓
Fresno State @ Wyoming +5.8 144.4 70% 82–92 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin +5.5 137.8 69% 56–53 ✗
Nebraska @ Iowa +0.2 138.4 51% 52–57 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas State -3.9 167.7 36% 74–90 ✗
Air Force @ New Mexico +29.8 142.6 100% 61–98 ✓
Georgia @ Kentucky +6.1 168.5 71% 86–78 ✗
LSU @ Texas +7.1 159.0 74% 85–88 ✓
Nevada @ San José State -11.3 145.3 15% 71–87 ✗
Grand Canyon @ San Diego State +7.5 141.1 75% 73–63 ✗
Minnesota @ Oregon +1.2 136.9 54% 61–44 ✗
Texas Tech @ Arizona State -8.8 157.0 21% 67–72 ✗
Rutgers @ Penn State +5.4 151.9 69% 85–72 ✗
Lafayette @ Holy Cross +2.7 137.4 60% 86–83 ✗
VMI @ Wofford +17.1 155.7 94% 76–82 ✓
Butler @ Georgetown +1.4 155.3 55% 93–89 ✗
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +11.2 159.9 84% 82–106 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman -0.7 142.8 48% 78–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.