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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 7.0 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Syracuse @ Duke	+20.3	146.0	97%	64–101	✓
Wagner @ Long Island University	+10.6	146.4	83%	65–83	✓
Howard @ Delaware State	-11.7	131.2	14%	91–59	✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central	+5.5	153.0	69%	76–80	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State	+17.5	146.5	94%	55–92	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State	-6.8	153.9	27%	86–91	✗
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M	-1.0	151.9	46%	63–68	✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-1.1	132.2	46%	70–66	✓
South Alabama @ Marshall	+5.2	149.3	68%	80–84	✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+6.5	139.3	72%	65–70	✓
New Orleans @ Incarnate Word	+0.1	160.0	50%	78–64	✗
McNeese @ Northwestern State	-13.6	144.2	11%	75–64	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	+5.2	141.8	68%	62–65	✓
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State	+0.2	143.0	51%	86–78	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M	+2.3	148.5	58%	70–82	✓
Southern @ Texas Southern	-0.2	161.5	49%	73–74	✗
Drexel @ Stony Brook	+3.0	132.2	61%	69–72	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-4.9	134.1	33%	78–68	✓
Nicholls @ Houston Christian	+0.0	146.0	50%	68–72	✓
Houston @ Iowa State	+2.7	137.9	60%	67–70	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern	+21.5	163.6	97%	66–75	✓
Boston College @ Florida State	+9.3	146.0	80%	72–80	✓
Michigan @ Purdue	-3.6	158.6	37%	91–80	✓
Villanova @ Xavier	-7.0	151.9	26%	92–89	✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo	+12.3	147.9	87%	72–70	✗
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	+6.4	143.1	72%	54–66	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.