Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -148 HOU +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -4.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -5.2 (-2.2) | 131.2 (+5.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -5.4 (-2.4) | 133.8 (+3.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -5.7 (-2.7) | 134.3 (+2.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -4.7 (-1.7) | 134.7 (+2.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOU 68 – 59 ISU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 69 – 41 HOU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | HOU 73 – 65 ISU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | ISU 57 – 53 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#5) | 22.4 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.92 (#9) | 4.36 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.85 (#11) | 5.59 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#19) | 0.646 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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