Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -425 UCLA +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +23 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -9.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -9.2 (+13.8) | 142.2 (-1.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -10.7 (+12.3) | 141.0 (+0.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -9.6 (+13.4) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -7.0 (+16.0) | 143.0 (-2.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UCLA 88 – 84 MSU |
| Feb 5, 2025 | UCLA 63 – 61 MSU |
| Mar 19, 2021 | UCLA 86 – 80 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#14) | 13.4 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#14) | 2.26 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#16) | 2.80 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#16) | 0.571 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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