Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -120 UCLA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +6 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -2.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -1.6 (-4.4) | 136.8 (+29.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -2.3 (-3.7) | 133.3 (+32.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -2.6 (-3.4) | 137.4 (+28.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -2.0 (-4.0) | 137.0 (+29.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UCLA 88 – 84 MSU |
| Feb 18, 2026 | MSU 82 – 59 UCLA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | UCLA 63 – 61 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#75) | 10.4 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#41) | 1.88 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#37) | 2.53 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#121) | 0.574 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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