Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
(11) Michigan State Spartans
80 86 OT
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) UCLA Bruins
Mackey Arena (Neutral) · March 19, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread MSU -2.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Over
Money MSU -120 / UCLA +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSU win
Actual UCLA +6 166 Lost
Massey UCLA -2.8 (-3.2)
Massey Totals 137.0 (+29.0)
Bradley-Terry 53%
Weighted B-T 55%
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -1.7 (-4.3) 138.3 (+27.7) 41%
Model 4 ML UCLA -2.1 (-3.9) 133.6 (+32.4) 38%
Model 3 ML UCLA -0.9 (-5.1) 136.1 (+29.9) 45%
Baseline ML UCLA -1.6 (-4.4) 136.1 (+29.9) 36%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 14, 2026 UCLA 8884 MSU
Feb 18, 2026 MSU 8259 UCLA
Feb 5, 2025 UCLA 6361 MSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSU UCLA
Neutral 0-2 6-3
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Massey 7.7 (#75) 10.4 (#47)
Bradley-Terry 2.01 (#41) 1.88 (#49)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.73 (#37) 2.53 (#44)
RPI 0.525 (#121) 0.574 (#38)
Shooting & Four Factors MSU UCLA
FG% 42.4% 46.2%
3PT% 32.0% 36.7%
REB / G 37.6 35.3
OREB / G 10.9 10.1
AST / TO 1.22 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.9% 52.0%
TOV% 18.9% 16.7%
ORB% 30.4% 30.8%
FT Rate 22.6% 23.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 50.7%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 17.6%
DRB% 74.0% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 26.6% 20.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.