Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -230 UCLA +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -5.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -6.9 (-10.9) | 136.8 (+35.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -7.0 (-11.0) | 138.9 (+33.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -6.8 (-10.8) | 138.2 (+33.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -5.0 (-9.0) | 139.1 (+32.9) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MSU 82 – 59 UCLA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | UCLA 63 – 61 MSU |
| Mar 19, 2021 | UCLA 86 – 80 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#12) | 14.8 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#9) | 2.55 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.62 (#8) | 3.18 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#6) | 0.587 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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