Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +295 TTU -375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -8.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -6.2 (+11.2) | 150.3 (-11.3) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -6.4 (+11.4) | 148.6 (-9.6) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -6.1 (+11.1) | 147.3 (-8.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -7.9 (+12.9) | 150.1 (-11.1) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2025 | TTU 85 – 57 ASU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TTU 111 – 106 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#78) | 19.6 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#59) | 3.71 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#60) | 4.44 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#71) | 0.660 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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