Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -1800 ASU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +5 | 217 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -13.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+73.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -13.5 (-8.5) | 142.5 (+74.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -11.7 (-6.7) | 141.9 (+75.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -12.0 (-7.0) | 142.8 (+74.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -12.9 (-7.9) | 143.8 (+73.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | ASU 72 – 67 TTU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | TTU 85 – 57 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#11) | 9.5 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#23) | 1.52 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#17) | 1.93 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#38) | 0.566 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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