He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–18 on winners spread MAE 10.8 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mississippi Valley State @ Florida State +32.3 162.4 100% 49–96 ✓
La Salle @ High Point +16.4 152.0 93% 72–84 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +18.2 160.5 95% 72–93 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Drexel +7.0 144.1 74% 67–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ Jackson State -12.8 133.2 12% 82–72 ✓
Tulsa @ Western Kentucky -5.6 168.9 31% 82–81 ✓
Florida A&M @ Tarleton State +16.0 155.3 93% 54–78 ✓
Wisconsin @ Villanova +3.4 154.6 62% 66–76 ✓
Alcorn State @ Baylor +29.9 173.9 100% 56–113 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU +27.0 146.4 99% 65–78 ✓
Belmont @ UC Irvine -1.3 144.5 45% 84–58 ✓
Abilene Christian @ BYU +30.7 143.2 100% 67–85 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Saint Mary's +13.2 152.3 88% 75–88 ✓
San Diego @ UC San Diego +20.6 155.1 97% 82–80 ✗
North Alabama @ Loyola Marymount +11.2 133.6 85% 57–91 ✓
Cal Poly @ UCLA +19.3 159.4 96% 87–108 ✓
Morgan State @ California +29.8 154.8 100% 50–97 ✓
Washington @ Seattle U -1.9 146.7 43% 66–70 ✗
Oakland @ Michigan State +17.3 158.3 94% 70–79 ✓
Montana @ Louisville +28.2 168.4 99% 54–94 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas State +23.0 178.0 98% 76–106 ✓
St. John's @ Kentucky +1.4 155.4 55% 66–78 ✓
Liberty @ Dayton +9.9 148.3 82% 64–61 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Youngstown State +8.0 144.4 77% 65–74 ✓
Chicago State @ Indiana +34.1 152.3 100% 58–78 ✓
Le Moyne @ St. Bonaventure +18.1 156.2 95% 81–92 ✓
Buffalo @ Western Michigan -2.7 155.1 40% 88–71 ✓
Robert Morris @ Saint Francis -15.0 149.8 9% 79–70 ✓
Georgia State @ App State +13.2 132.7 89% 70–63 ✗
Colorado State @ Utah State +6.6 152.2 73% 58–100 ✓
Howard @ UNC Wilmington +15.0 137.8 91% 67–66 ✗
Longwood @ North Carolina Central +0.5 150.4 52% 74–72 ✗
Lafayette @ Georgia Tech +15.7 144.9 92% 81–95 ✓
Iona @ Vermont +3.9 166.3 64% 83–78 ✗
Binghamton @ Mercyhurst +13.5 135.0 89% 61–82 ✓
Elon @ Virginia Tech +12.9 169.5 88% 81–82 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State -14.0 146.9 10% 86–77 ✓
Kent State @ Massachusetts +4.3 174.2 65% 69–59 ✗
Holy Cross @ Harvard +8.6 137.7 78% 53–81 ✓
Marshall @ Troy +2.6 168.0 59% 63–70 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion +7.4 145.8 75% 76–74 ✗
Denver @ Northern Colorado +13.2 176.0 89% 86–79 ✗
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois +7.4 149.0 75% 73–74 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe +5.3 140.9 68% 76–62 ✗
North Carolina @ Ohio State -4.0 155.8 36% 71–70 ✓
South Alabama @ Texas State -1.5 139.7 45% 65–67 ✗
Memphis @ Mississippi State +2.1 152.4 57% 66–71 ✓
Jacksonville State @ East Tennessee State +18.3 131.9 95% 81–75 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Wyoming +11.1 144.9 84% 82–70 ✗
Northwestern @ Butler +1.1 162.8 54% 58–61 ✓
Northeastern @ Syracuse +13.7 138.8 89% 83–91 ✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio -6.6 152.6 27% 68–58 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech +4.2 142.5 65% 86–62 ✗
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss +4.1 161.6 64% 93–86 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State +4.9 154.7 67% 91–82 ✗
Morehead State @ Southern Indiana -0.1 147.0 50% 64–60 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ UCF +18.6 168.1 95% 80–102 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Santa Clara +22.2 153.4 98% 80–78 ✗
Mercer @ Washington State +2.2 152.7 58% 78–84 ✓
Long Island University @ Florida International +6.8 164.2 73% 79–86 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern +4.7 162.3 66% 92–96 ✓
Houston @ Arkansas -2.3 145.1 42% 94–85 ✓
Maryland @ Virginia +20.6 157.0 97% 72–80 ✓
The Citadel @ Richmond +25.9 152.0 99% 56–80 ✓
Bucknell @ Iowa +27.6 135.3 99% 39–94 ✓
Auburn @ Purdue +6.9 159.6 73% 60–88 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.