Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | VILL +145 WIS -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -1.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.5 (+5.5) | 147.9 (-5.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.5 (+4.5) | 146.6 (-4.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -5.1 (+4.9) | 148.3 (-6.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -4.3 (+5.7) | 147.1 (-5.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#40) | 10.3 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#58) | 1.46 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#56) | 2.34 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#34) | 0.581 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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