Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -2100 FGCU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +22 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -18.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -16.9 (+5.1) | 158.8 (+23.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -16.8 (+5.2) | 157.0 (+25.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -17.4 (+4.6) | 157.1 (+24.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -19.9 (+2.1) | 159.5 (+22.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#51) | -2.6 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#17) | -0.80 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.41 (#20) | -0.40 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#17) | 0.457 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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