Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -1450 HOW +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +1 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -15.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -15.8 (-16.8) | 135.0 (-2.0) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -15.1 (-16.1) | 137.1 (-4.1) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -14.3 (-15.3) | 137.3 (-4.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -14.7 (-15.7) | 136.4 (-3.4) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | HOW 88 – 83 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-3 |
| Home | 15-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 12-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#112) | -6.6 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#77) | -1.00 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#117) | -1.41 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#81) | 0.445 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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