Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | HOW +175 UNCW -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +5 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -1.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.3 (+9.3) | 140.8 (+30.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.3 (+6.3) | 142.0 (+29.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.9 (+5.9) | 142.3 (+28.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -1.1 (+6.1) | 143.0 (+28.0) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | HOW 67 – 66 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#270) | 0.6 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#302) | 0.83 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#305) | 0.36 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#253) | 0.546 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 36.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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