Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Burr Gymnasium · December 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNCW -4.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money HOW +175 / UNCW -210
Model Predictions
Spread Total HOW win
Actual HOW +5 171 Won
Massey UNCW -1.8 (+6.8)
Massey Totals 147.3 (+23.7)
Bradley-Terry 17%
Weighted B-T 16%
Efficiency Plus ML UNCW -4.3 (+9.3) 140.8 (+30.2) 31%
Baseline Tuned ML UNCW -1.3 (+6.3) 142.0 (+29.0) 42%
Baseline ML UNCW -0.9 (+5.9) 142.3 (+28.7) 47%
Baseline Plus ML UNCW -1.1 (+6.1) 143.0 (+28.0) 39%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 20, 2025 HOW 6766 UNCW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HOW UNCW
Overall 12-20 27-8
Conference 7-7 14-4
Home 8-6 15-3
Away 3-11 9-4
Neutral 1-3 3-1
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L5 L1
Avg Pts For 75.6 76.6
Avg Pts Against 80.7 70.3
Massey -5.6 (#270) 0.6 (#153)
Bradley-Terry -1.58 (#302) 0.83 (#109)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.26 (#305) 0.36 (#152)
RPI 0.453 (#253) 0.546 (#105)
Shooting & Four Factors HOW UNCW
FG% 45.6% 41.4%
3PT% 35.6% 29.1%
REB / G 30.1 38.1
OREB / G 8.5 12.4
AST / TO 0.89 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.9% 47.1%
TOV% 21.6% 16.4%
ORB% 26.3% 33.7%
FT Rate 19.7% 36.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.5% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 18.4%
DRB% 70.9% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 23.0%

Game Analysis

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