Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -345 AUB +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +28 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -6.6 (+21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.6 (+19.4) | 150.2 (-2.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.3 (+16.7) | 150.0 (-2.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -11.1 (+16.9) | 149.6 (-1.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -12.8 (+15.2) | 152.9 (-4.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | AUB 87 – 69 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#12) | 12.8 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#10) | 2.58 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.51 (#9) | 4.62 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#14) | 0.615 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.96 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 42.3% | 39.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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