Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -40.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +47 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -31.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -24.9 (+22.1) | 159.3 (-14.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -20.8 (+26.2) | 152.2 (-7.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -26.4 (+20.6) | 153.8 (-8.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -27.7 (+19.3) | 155.3 (-10.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-6 | 2-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 83.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#131) | -24.7 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#188) | -4.02 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#180) | -5.83 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#173) | 0.340 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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