Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -20000 MONT +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +40 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -27.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -23.6 (+16.4) | 162.2 (-14.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -25.5 (+14.5) | 159.0 (-11.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -27.4 (+12.6) | 159.9 (-11.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -30.3 (+9.7) | 160.8 (-12.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#9) | -3.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#42) | -0.67 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#43) | -0.99 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#47) | 0.459 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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