Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | VT -950 ELON +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +1 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | VT -13.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -10.4 (-9.4) | 157.7 (+5.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -12.8 (-11.8) | 158.9 (+4.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -13.3 (-12.3) | 158.3 (+4.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -13.5 (-12.5) | 159.6 (+3.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#60) | 0.7 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#50) | 0.73 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#54) | 0.81 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#35) | 0.523 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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