We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–8 on winners spread MAE 8.2 28 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Georgia +35.0 171.0 100% 82–112 ✓
Bradley @ Indiana State -0.6 142.5 48% 108–99 ✓
Temple @ Davidson +10.0 153.1 82% 68–63 ✗
Radford @ William & Mary +21.2 168.6 97% 83–96 ✓
Furman @ Manhattan -7.6 156.3 24% 75–68 ✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona +12.0 146.9 86% 57–65 ✓
American University @ VCU +20.3 152.9 97% 83–105 ✓
Delaware State @ Saint Joseph's +15.5 137.6 92% 51–67 ✓
Lafayette @ Charlotte +13.6 139.0 89% 67–81 ✓
Fairfield @ Central Connecticut +9.1 147.6 80% 84–70 ✗
Norfolk State @ Grambling -1.3 128.2 45% 68–80 ✗
Drake @ Murray State +9.2 167.3 80% 72–81 ✓
Winthrop @ North Dakota -14.0 159.2 10% 88–90 ✗
Kansas City @ Oklahoma State +28.6 157.0 100% 79–91 ✓
Oral Roberts @ TCU +20.6 147.7 97% 53–72 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +14.1 156.4 90% 67–90 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +19.5 133.7 96% 54–62 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +2.5 136.1 59% 71–78 ✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana +10.0 143.1 82% 77–62 ✗
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood +19.2 148.8 96% 76–92 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +0.2 153.8 51% 75–68 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +4.4 158.8 66% 74–85 ✓
Pepperdine @ Long Beach State +4.9 141.6 67% 78–81 ✓
Dartmouth @ Sacred Heart -0.9 157.5 47% 63–85 ✗
Grambling @ Hampton -0.7 139.6 47% 81–72 ✓
South Dakota State @ Milwaukee -1.2 154.7 46% 87–88 ✗
Coppin State @ Navy +24.9 146.0 99% 55–88 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence -0.8 159.9 47% 72–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.