Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CLT -650 LAF +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -15.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -10.7 (+3.3) | 133.0 (+15.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -12.1 (+1.9) | 134.0 (+14.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -12.1 (+1.9) | 134.0 (+14.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -11.0 (+3.0) | 133.0 (+15.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#180) | -11.8 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#228) | -3.18 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#207) | -4.34 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#202) | 0.329 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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