Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UND +625 WIN -950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +2 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -13.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.6 (+12.6) | 151.1 (+26.9) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -9.7 (+11.7) | 151.4 (+26.6) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -9.9 (+11.9) | 151.0 (+27.0) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -10.1 (+12.1) | 151.8 (+26.2) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 13-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#333) | 5.9 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#331) | 0.48 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#332) | 0.59 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#323) | 0.532 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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