Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -2800 DSU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +16 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -14.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -14.8 (+1.2) | 141.4 (-23.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -11.3 (+4.7) | 135.7 (-17.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -12.1 (+3.9) | 135.4 (-17.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -10.8 (+5.2) | 137.1 (-19.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 28, 2024 | JOES 76 – 58 DSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#264) | -16.1 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#213) | -1.96 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#252) | -2.86 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#225) | 0.397 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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