Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -7500 DSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -17.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -17.3 (+0.7) | 148.5 (-14.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -14.4 (+3.6) | 146.6 (-12.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -15.0 (+3.0) | 147.6 (-13.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -15.0 (+3.0) | 147.6 (-13.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | JOES 67 – 51 DSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#96) | -7.9 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#122) | -0.69 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#133) | -1.30 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#108) | 0.465 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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