Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MAN +410 FUR -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -8.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -7.7 (+0.7) | 150.9 (-7.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -4.9 (-2.1) | 150.1 (-7.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -4.5 (-2.5) | 150.5 (-7.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -4.6 (-2.4) | 149.5 (-6.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#338) | -0.4 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#289) | 0.41 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#280) | 0.00 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#282) | 0.545 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 59.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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