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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–8 on winners spread MAE 8.8 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Vanderbilt @ Memphis -10.8 160.9 16% 77–70 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Green Bay -0.0 153.7 50% 64–67 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +1.3 139.2 55% 62–59 ✗
UAlbany @ Stony Brook +14.7 150.6 91% 71–55 ✗
The Citadel @ Charleston +17.6 143.6 94% 78–82 ✓
Mercer @ UCF +11.6 164.3 85% 63–81 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida A&M +1.2 146.1 54% 65–72 ✓
Chattanooga @ Bellarmine +5.9 149.1 70% 64–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Wagner +11.0 140.5 84% 64–78 ✓
Siena @ Vermont +1.2 142.6 54% 69–83 ✓
Presbyterian @ East Carolina +0.4 130.5 52% 53–74 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +0.2 151.7 51% 85–75 ✗
Alabama State @ Cincinnati +12.3 145.6 87% 51–88 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +2.5 141.0 59% 77–80 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky +2.7 173.4 60% 82–77 ✗
Longwood @ Wake Forest +31.1 165.7 100% 68–71 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Syracuse +20.4 128.0 97% 62–76 ✓
Binghamton @ Pittsburgh +21.1 138.7 97% 63–103 ✓
Texas Southern @ NC State +37.1 167.7 100% 72–108 ✓
Richmond @ Elon -0.7 171.6 47% 70–73 ✗
Wofford @ Wichita State +15.6 140.5 92% 73–84 ✓
Cleveland State @ UAB +22.3 158.9 98% 77–101 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Tulane +1.0 137.4 54% 53–61 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee +9.8 169.3 81% 67–68 ✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls +4.3 144.4 65% 64–79 ✓
South Alabama @ UL Monroe -6.7 151.0 27% 96–92 ✓
South Florida @ Alabama +14.8 182.0 91% 93–104 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Ole Miss +11.8 134.1 86% 66–80 ✓
Weber State @ Utah Valley +15.7 153.5 92% 74–90 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Saint Louis +24.8 157.3 99% 53–112 ✓
James Madison @ Old Dominion +5.0 153.1 67% 68–77 ✓
Georgetown @ Marquette +4.8 155.8 67% 78–69 ✗
Arkansas State @ Texas State -3.3 153.7 38% 89–70 ✓
Campbell @ Gonzaga +39.8 157.3 100% 70–98 ✓
UTSA @ USC +27.9 152.6 99% 70–97 ✓
Seattle U @ UC Davis -1.8 144.9 44% 79–78 ✓
North Texas @ Santa Clara +11.0 138.9 84% 60–63 ✓
Portland State @ Colorado +15.7 158.1 92% 73–84 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Stephen F. Austin +11.2 136.2 85% 60–69 ✓
Sam Houston @ Oregon State -4.6 154.1 34% 85–75 ✓
Washington State @ Eastern Washington -2.8 165.7 40% 78–63 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +21.8 141.5 98% 58–81 ✓
UT Arlington @ Stanford +8.5 141.8 78% 60–76 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ San Francisco +19.3 142.9 96% 71–85 ✓
Arizona State @ UCLA +7.2 147.1 74% 77–90 ✓
Portland @ Oregon +11.9 151.7 86% 69–94 ✓
North Florida @ Charleston Southern +12.7 160.4 88% 90–113 ✓
Hampton @ Jackson State -12.8 139.2 12% 84–77 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ App State +2.3 135.3 58% 49–67 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Eastern Illinois -3.0 133.6 39% 72–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.