Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -6500 ALST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +37 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -12.7 (+24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -15.4 (+21.6) | 144.8 (-5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -11.2 (+25.8) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -11.7 (+25.3) | 143.0 (-4.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -11.4 (+25.6) | 144.5 (-5.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2024 | CIN 77 – 59 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#112) | -4.2 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#161) | -0.91 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#143) | -1.47 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#174) | 0.477 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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