Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | ELON +145 RICH -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -2.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.9 (-28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -1.9 (+1.1) | 158.1 (-15.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -0.0 (+3.0) | 156.4 (-13.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -0.3 (+2.7) | 157.9 (-14.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -0.5 (+2.5) | 159.7 (-16.7) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#163) | 6.6 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#150) | 2.15 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#158) | 4.49 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#182) | 0.567 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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