Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -6500 AAMU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -12.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -9.7 (+4.3) | 132.8 (+13.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MISS -14.9 (-0.9) | 132.3 (+13.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MISS -8.8 (+5.2) | 131.6 (+14.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -7.6 (+6.4) | 132.6 (+13.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#91) | -6.2 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#142) | 0.50 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#118) | 0.43 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#154) | 0.515 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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