Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -1800 MER +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +18 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -12.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -15.1 (+2.9) | 155.8 (-11.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.6 (+5.4) | 153.9 (-9.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -11.7 (+6.3) | 154.8 (-10.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -12.8 (+5.2) | 155.6 (-11.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#58) | 2.4 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#17) | 1.29 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#22) | 1.48 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#28) | 0.555 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 42.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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