Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +130 SEA -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | SEA -1.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -1.1 (+0.1) | 141.1 (+15.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -1.0 (-2.0) | 141.1 (+15.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.5 (-1.5) | 142.5 (+14.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.5 (-1.5) | 142.1 (+14.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#191) | 4.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#117) | 0.46 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#116) | 1.26 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#96) | 0.494 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 52.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 59.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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