Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | USC -5000 UTSA +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +27 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | USC -27.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -21.6 (+5.4) | 148.5 (+18.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -22.5 (+4.5) | 146.8 (+20.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -25.2 (+1.8) | 146.5 (+20.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -24.4 (+2.6) | 151.7 (+15.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-7 | 2-12 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 82.9 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#48) | -11.5 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#13) | -0.91 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.58 (#17) | -1.63 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#14) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 39.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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