Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -2400 CLE +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +24 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -22.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -17.1 (+6.9) | 150.6 (+27.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -18.9 (+5.1) | 149.7 (+28.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -19.7 (+4.3) | 148.8 (+29.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -19.7 (+4.3) | 149.6 (+28.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-9 | 7-8 |
| Away | 10-2 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 88.6 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#109) | -13.9 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#163) | -3.12 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#131) | -4.24 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#210) | 0.381 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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