Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Patrick Gymnasium · December 18, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UVM -2.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Money UVM -148 / SIE +124
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVM win
Actual UVM +14 152 Won
Massey UVM -1.9 (+12.1)
Massey Totals 143.7 (+8.3)
Bradley-Terry 55%
Weighted B-T 59%
Efficiency Plus ML UVM -0.9 (+13.1) 133.9 (+18.1) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML UVM -1.6 (+12.4) 135.5 (+16.5) 55%
Baseline ML UVM -0.6 (+13.4) 135.8 (+16.2) 55%
Baseline Plus ML UVM -1.1 (+12.9) 135.2 (+16.8) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVM SIE
Overall 22-12 23-12
Conference 12-4 13-7
Home 13-3 9-4
Away 8-7 9-7
Neutral 1-2 5-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.1 70.4
Avg Pts Against 68.8 65.8
Massey -1.2 (#184) 1.2 (#148)
Bradley-Terry 0.08 (#171) 0.68 (#125)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.02 (#171) 0.53 (#141)
RPI 0.511 (#153) 0.504 (#163)
Shooting & Four Factors UVM SIE
FG% 46.2% 46.7%
3PT% 34.2% 29.0%
REB / G 33.2 34.5
OREB / G 8.5 10.8
AST / TO 1.26 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.2% 51.2%
TOV% 15.9% 17.2%
ORB% 27.0% 34.1%
FT Rate 24.5% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.9% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 14.2% 21.1%
DRB% 75.3% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 28.9% 19.1%

Game Analysis

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