Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -148 SIE +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +14 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -1.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -0.9 (+13.1) | 133.9 (+18.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -1.6 (+12.4) | 135.5 (+16.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -0.6 (+13.4) | 135.8 (+16.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -1.1 (+12.9) | 135.2 (+16.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#184) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#171) | 0.68 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#171) | 0.53 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#153) | 0.504 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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