Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -185 LT +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +8 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -1.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -1.9 (+6.1) | 135.7 (-21.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TULN -0.6 (+7.4) | 134.6 (-20.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TULN -1.8 (+6.2) | 134.1 (-20.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -1.7 (+6.3) | 134.4 (-20.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#280) | -4.4 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#197) | -0.29 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#226) | -0.93 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#201) | 0.447 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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