Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | JKST +310 HAMP -395 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | HAMP -14.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -9.3 (+2.3) | 132.7 (+28.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -8.4 (+1.4) | 132.2 (+28.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -9.5 (+2.5) | 132.6 (+28.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -9.6 (+2.6) | 133.1 (+27.9) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -18.6 (#360) | -4.3 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#288) | -1.60 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#295) | -2.21 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#209) | 0.393 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.7% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 57.3% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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